Analyzing Climatic and Environmental Trends in Iraq Using an Integrated GIS and Mann-Kendall Approach
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Abstract
This study investigates the spatial and temporal trends in selected climatic and environmental variables across various regions of Iraq from January to May during 2003 to 2024 using Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques and the Mann-Kendall trend test. The analysis focuses on five variables: air temperature, methane, carbon monoxide (CO), carbon dioxide (CO2), and the Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI). A comprehensive dataset was compiled by integrating satellite-based observations of climatic and environmental variables, MODIS remote sensing imagery for SAVI estimation, and observational air temperature data obtained from the Iraqi Meteorological Organization and Seismology. Temporal trends were assessed using the Mann-Kendall test, a non-parametric method for detecting monotonic changes, while the Theil-Sen slope estimator was used to quantify the rate of change over time. For spatial analysis, Iraq was classified into three climatic regions: northern, middle, and southern regions. This regional division facilitated clearer identification of spatial and seasonal variations in climate and environmental conditions. Results reveal strong regional contrasts. Middle and southern governorates experienced the highest warming rates, while northern regions showed weaker thermal changes. Methane increased significantly across all regions, whereas CO declined markedly. CO2 exhibited a consistent upward trend nationwide. SAVI trends varied across regions: northern governorates showed positive vegetation responses, whereas southern and western regions showed stagnation or decline. Overall, middle and southern Iraq face the highest environmental stress due to accelerated warming, increasing greenhouse gas concentration, and reduced vegetation resilience, emphasizing the need for targeted adaptation measures and sustainable land management strategies.
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© 2023 The Author(s). Published by the College of Science, University of Baghdad. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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