Statistical Analysis and Forecasting of Rainfall Patterns and Trends in Gombe North-Eastern Nigeria
Article Sidebar
Main Article Content
Abstract
Rainfall in Nigeria is highly dynamic and variable on a temporal and spatial scale. This has taken a more pronounced dimension due to climate change. In this study, Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall test statistical tools were employed to analyze rainfall trends and patterns in Gombe metropolis between 1990 and 2020 and the ARIMA model was used for making the forecast for ten (10) years. Daily rainfall data of 31 years obtained from Nigerian Meteorological Agency, (NIMET) was used for the study. The daily rainfall data was subjected to several analyses. Standard precipitation index showed that alternation of wet and dry period conditions had been witnessed in the study area. The result obtained showed that there is an upward trend in the annual rainfall amount received in Gombe over the last 31 years at a rate of 3.98 mm/year. The results for the forecast shows that the annual rainfall to be received in Gombe continues in a range above the mean which serves as an indication that the decade will experience more wet years than dry years. The study concludes that the pattern of rainfall in Gombe is a cyclic pattern. The current trend may affect soil moisture, flooding and subsequently lead to ecological change. The study recommends that inhabitants of the study areas should plan their cropping season based on climatic information of their area.
Article Details
Issue
Section
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
© 2023 The Author(s). Published by College of Science, University of Baghdad. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
References
Srivastava P.K., Han D., Rico‐Ramirez M.A., and Islam T., Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of mesoscale model downscaled hydro‐meteorological variables for discharge prediction. Hydrological Processes, 2014. 28(15): pp. 4419-4432.
Islam T., Rico‐Ramirez M.A., Han D., and Srivastava P.K., A Joss–Waldvogel disdrometer derived rainfall estimation study by collocated tipping bucket and rapid response rain gauges. Atmospheric Science Letters, 2012. 13(2): pp. 139-150.
Srivastava P.K., Mehta A., Gupta M., Singh S.K., and Islam T., Assessing impact of climate change on Mundra mangrove forest ecosystem, Gulf of Kutch, western coast of India: a synergistic evaluation using remote sensing. Theoretical Applied Climatology, 2015. 120(3): pp. 685-700.
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Climate Change: Impact, Vulnerabilities and Adaptation in Developing Countries, 2007.
Itiowe T., Hassan S., and Agidi V., Analysis of rainfall trends and patterns in Abuja, Nigeria. Current Journal of Applied Science Technology, 2019. 34(4): pp. 1-7.
Odjugo P.A., An analysis of rainfall patterns in Nigeria. Global Journal of Environmental Sciences, 2005. 4(2): pp. 139-145.
Cannarozzo M., Noto L.V., and Viola F., Spatial distribution of rainfall trends in Sicily (1921–2000). Physics Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 2006. 31(18): pp. 1201-1211.
Magaji B., Danbature W.L., Shehu Z., Sani M.M., Sani A.M., and Abubakar A., Evaluation of Some Heavy Metals in Soils Around Major Parks in Gombe Town Nigeria. Asian Journal of Applied Chemistry Research, 2019. 4(4): pp. 1-5.
Yahaya I. and Adamu S.J., Statistical Study of Rainfall Pattern in Gombe Metropolis, and its Implication on the Attainment of Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). International Journal of Scientific Research Publications, 2016. 6(6): pp. 730-739.
Yahaya I., Analysis of Rainfall Variability in North-Eastern Nigeria, Thesis, 2015.
Ahmad Y.U. and Yahaya I., X-raying rainfall pattern in Gombe State over the last three decades. IOSR J of Hum Soc Science, 2017. 22(6): pp. 67-75.
Gocic M. and Trajkovic S., Analysis of changes in meteorological variables using Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope estimator statistical tests in Serbia. Global Planetary Change, 2013. 100: pp. 172-182.
Kalita D., Kalita R., Sharma Y., and Saxena A., Trend Analysis of Climate Indices for Daily Temperature and Precipitation Record in Tura (Meghalaya). 2020.
Chen J., Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA). 2019, investopedia.
Williams J., Adebayo A., and Arikpo I.A., Farmers Perception of Climate Change in Michika Local Government Area of Adamawa State Civil and Environmental Research, 2015. 7(5): pp. 13-20.
Abashiya M., Abaje I., Iguisi E., Bello A., Sawa B., Amos B., Musa I.J.E.J.o.E.S., and Management, Rainfall characteristics and occurrence of floods in Gombe Metropolis, Nigeria. Ethiopian Journal of Environmental Studies Management, 2017. 10(1): pp. 44-54.
Bello Y., Adebayo A.A., and Abubakar B., Analysis of rainfall and temperature changes in Gombe State, Nigeria. FUDMA Journal of Sciences, 2020. 4(1): pp. 632-646.